5.13.2008
A Peek Into The Post-Christian Future
Ruth Gledhill of The Times examines new survey data on religious attendance in Britain, and the results aren't looking too good for Christianity.
"Church attendance in Britain is declining so fast that the number of regular churchgoers will be fewer than those attending mosques within a generation, research published today suggests ... Churchgoing [Christians] across all denominations in England will fall from about 3 million today to about 700,000 in 2050. In Wales it will tumble from 200,000 to 42,000 and in Scotland, from 550,000 to 140,000. The figures take into account the recent boost to Catholicism from the number of Polish immigrants to Britain, particularly in Scotland."
The new data comes from UK-based Christian Research, who regularly publish updates on church attendance and adherence in their "Religious Trends" studies. While the Times article gives special focus to Muslim fortunes in this brave new (projected) Christian-minority world (at least in terms of attendance), the rising tide of declining Christian attendance raises all religious minority boats.
"The forecast to 2050 shows churchgoing in Britain declining to 899,000 while the active Hindu population, now at nearly 400,000, will have more than doubled to 855,000."
So if Muslims and Hindus are going to benefit, what about the Pagans? According to the last British census, there were around 40,000 Pagans in the UK. But many Pagans believe there are a lot more, from conservative estimates of nearly 300,000, to (un-sourced) articles claiming there are a million Pagans. If census growth rates hold steady in the next fifty years (and if these latest projections hold true for all non-Christian faiths), religion in Britain won't be taken over by Muslims, instead we can look forward to a Britain locked in a precarious balance between the remaining Christians, Muslims, Hindus, and Pagans.
Aiding the growth of minority faiths will be the economic decline of Christianity in Britain. As attendance drops, the large institutional structures maintained by the Church of England and the Catholics will become unsustainable. Something that could happen in less than thirty years.
"The fall - from the four million people who attend church at least once a month today - means that the Church of England, Catholicism and other denominations will become financially unviable. A lack of funds from the collection plate to support the Christian infrastructure, including church upkeep and ministers' pay and pensions, will force church closures as ageing congregations die."
Of course, predictions of future events could always be altered by factors yet unforeseen. However, it does give us a glimpse of how a post-Christian world might look, and what our place might be in such a world. Will we be ready for a time when modern Pagans hold political office (and pandered to by politicians looking to get into office), are looked to for social guidance, and considered completely mainstream? We in America may get a preview of such a world sooner than we think in the UK.
Labels: census, Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, Paganism, post-Christian, Religion, survey, UK
11.01.2007
Mainstreamed, In Demand, Yet Shrinking?
Is modern Paganism becoming more mainstream, yet shrinking in size? That seems to be the gist of two recent articles that talked to practitioners and academics about the state of modern Paganism today. Reuters reporter Sarah Marsh interviews famed Alexandrian priestess Maxine Sanders, who explains that Witches and Pagans are more in demand than ever before.
"'Witches are getting more and more in demand. People want a pagan wedding,' said Maxine Sanders, high priestess of the sacred mysteries and a promoter of the modern nature-based witchcraft movement of Wicca ... People are more tolerant on the whole nowadays, she added, and more interested in witchcraft."
Elsewhere in the article, pop-culture boosts to Wicca and other modern Pagan religions through shows like "Buffy" and "Charmed" are mentioned, but a metaphysical store owner says these newcomers aren't necessarily in it for the religion.
"More and more people are practicing magic but they are not necessarily interested in the spiritual side of witchcraft, said John Cole, high priest of a Manchester coven and owner of an occult shop selling everything from cauldrons to Viking rune charms."
Some of these themes are taken up in a Samhain-themed article for The Record in Canada. Mirko Petricevic interviews academic Douglas Cowan, author of "Cyberhenge: Modern Pagans on the Internet", who also credits pop-culture for a sudden burst of growth, yet now thinks modern Paganism is entering a "shrinking" phase as that initial surge of interest wears off.
"Cowan says he hasn't had to go far to track the popularity of Paganism. But he has also observed that participation seems to be declining. Not long ago, he says, books about Wicca and witchcraft occupied huge amounts of shelf space at book stores. "Over the years I watched that shrink" ... Cowan suspects the next census or two will show a dramatic drop in the number of Pagans. He says he believes Paganism will grow, but that it will build slowly from the same core group of believers who were practising before interest in Paganism was driven by pop-culture."
While I agree that we may be tapering off of the explosive growth modern Paganism saw in the 1990s, there seems to be no clear picture on if we are shrinking (call it the hypothetical "pop-culture corrective"). Book-buying as proof of growth rates is a pretty shaky indicator, especially if the market was over-saturated for many years (as I believe it was). There will always be transient dabblers and seekers who don't stay long, but the demographics of possible new Pagans keep improving, perhaps mitigating any dramatic "shrink" in population. No doubt harder data will emerge when both Britain and Australia hold their next censuses in 2011. Until then, while I agree we are becoming ever more "mainstream", I'm not sure we are experiencing any dramatic downturn.
Labels: Canada, census, Douglas Cowan, Maxine Sanders, Paganism, pop-culture, population, UK
7.15.2007
Is Paganism's Growth Leveling Off?
One of the pervasive beliefs about modern Paganism is that we are growing at an explosive rate. Several studies (often by conservative Christian polling groups) exclaim excitedly of how teens are picking up "occult" and Pagan practices in huge numbers, or how the vast majority of Americans believe in "the paranormal" to one extent or another. Recently, an Australian study of religion claimed that modern Pagan faiths were the fastest growing in that country.
"Amongst those religions on the rise are Buddhism (up 79% since 1996), Islam (up 40%), Hinduism (up 42%), Pentecostalism (up 11%), 'nature religions' including Paganism and Wicca/witchcraft, (up 130%), and Scientology (up 37%)."
But is our collective explosive growth now leveling off? While we still have no firm data on America's Pagan population, new data from Australia's 2006 census has just been released that sheds some new light on Pagan growth rates. Sociologist (and Pagan) Douglas Ezzy reveals that Pagan growth rates seem to be slowing down
"We just heard the figures for the Australian 2006 Census. They are: Paganism 16,000 (11,000 in 2001), Witchcraft/Wicca 8,000 (9,000 in 2001), Other Nature Religion: 2,000 (3,000 in 2001). That makes a change from a total of 23,000 (0.12%) in 2001 to 26,000 (0.13%) in 2006 ... so, basically, the number of Pagans recorded on the Australian Census in 2006 is around 0.13 to 0.14% of the population and has grown in size by about 13% since the 2001 Census. Not bad, but nothing like the growth the movement had earlier."
While Paganism is still on the rise, it is no longer the news-making "boom" that grabbed so much attention in the 1990s, and spurred a large-scale invasion of Pagan-friendly products into the mainstream. Since Australia's census takes place every five years it can perhaps give an quicker (and more accurate?) snapshot of our collective growth rates. But any claims of a overall slowing of Pagan growth will most likely have to wait until the United Kingdom's next census in 2011 (like Australia, the UK also reported "explosive" growth in Pagan numbers in its 2001 census). American statistics will have to, as always, rely on the more inexact nature of polls and surveys to get a feeling for our growth rates.
* Could this be yet another sign that our era's occult renaissance is about to end, just as Louis T. Culling predicted?
Labels: Australia, census, Paganism, population
